The Italian economy, the recovery plan at risk: two factors put it in crisis. Will the fourth wave and higher bill prices be the Achilles' heel for the country's economic recovery? The possible scenario of 2022.
 |
| The Italian economy, the recovery plan at risk: two factors put it in crisis |
Entering the heart of the new year with forecasts on the progress of the economic recovery plan that the government has proposed, two elements of discord are revealed on the horizon.
The now full-blown arrival of a fourth wave is not the only critical point, the hoped-for recovery rates could be slowed down considerably also by the cost of bills and a rich series of unknowns that are currently still inextricable.
To contextualize these forecasts, still rather vague from the point of view of the actual figures, it was an update note to the DEF (Document of economics and finance), let's see what it is.
What did the DEF say?
The DEF iconically represents the government's main tool for structuring economic-financial planning and, at the same time, indicates the public strategy to be adopted in the medium term (medium-term budgetary framework).
At the end of September, well before the arrival of the Omicron variant, the hypothesis of partial efficacy of vaccines in the face of Covid-19 variants was revealed for simple reasons of a scientific and biological nature, already expressed by various experts of the matter.
The almost total absence of vaccines in many areas of the world still remains an unheard issue because it is considered far from the destinies of the great world powers which, on the contrary, have good stocks of doses behind them. The result of this imbalance, however, will now also have repercussions on the national interests of the states that have a valid health system.
The fear expressed in the papers at the time was therefore already taking shape and was outlined by the technicians of the Ministry of Economy even in terms of figures.
In fact, in the Nadef hypothesis, an extension of the fourth pandemic wave connected to new restrictive measures of economic activity (which have materialized to a minimum and could worsen in the future) would mean a 1.4% cut in the expected growth trend for next year.
On the basis of GDP, the trend would lead to a stop at 2.8% compared to the goal of 4.2%. The effect on real growth driven by the Senate maneuver would in turn be reduced by 3.3% compared to the 4.7% target set by the government itself.
A slowdown on several fronts
The factors to be evaluated are not exclusively related to the dynamics of the variants in the strict sense.
It is important to underline, for example, how, in order to assess the real extent of these problems, it would also be necessary to clarify the ideas on the fund against the expensive bills which up to now has absorbed resources for 9.3 billion, a sum deemed insufficient to buffer even the price increases that await us in the spring.
We must say that it is rather premature to hypothesize figures, but it is also clear that a new slowdown in the economy could also be caused by the worsening of the situation in countries such as Great Britain and Germany, two states that are already under stress today.
Since these nations are among our main trading partners, the result of the interconnection would cause a new budget gap with cascading consequences that should not be underestimated.
Last big unknown? The sums to be allocated to aid the economy, in particular those intended for the tourism sector.
Prime Minister Draghi in the press conference at the end of the year had brought general attention back to the issue with a rather vague vision of how expenses should be defined in relation to the 150 million set aside in the maneuver.
In summary, the margins are tight and the demand points are still too large to dissolve temporarily.
- Covid 19 italian economy
- covid 19 impact on the Italian economy
- COVID-19 has a devastating impact on Italy's economy
0 Comments